If we see a continuation or escalation of hostilities, expect gold, oil, and the USD to push even higher

EM currencies are all already seeing a lift, with the South African Rand hitting 20-month highs against the USD.

We can now expect a relatively rapid reduction in interest rates for all major currencies and a period of increased volatility.

Any significant volatility will come from the ECB’s forward guidance, with big question marks over further cuts in October and December.

The odds of a 50-bps rate cut on September 18th have risen. Uncertainty is the market’s worst nightmare; whatever the decision is, we will see serious volatility.

Recent developments have forced the USD lower as a September rate cut looks certain, but will the cut be 25bps or 50? And will Powell’s speech shed any light?

Today’s surprise data put paid to the dollar’s fall, with retail sales up 1% vs 0.3% expected – the biggest increase since January 2023.

As we head into the end of the week, Monday's panic seems like a bad dream. However, markets are very nervous and expect more data-driven volatility over the coming months.

Given the high probability of a US rate cut in September and the uncertainty in the EU, the price of the EUR/USD will likely remain dependant on EU data, rather than events in the US.

With interest rates now likely to come down at least twice and possibly three times this year - and Biden’s bid for a second term looking weaker than ever - gold prices are likely to remain elevated.

The USD nosedived, and the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September received a major boost today as US CPI figures showed a further fall in inflation.

The GBP/USD looks set for further gains over the coming weeks, especially considering any further weakness in the US economy. However, this may not translate into long-term gains for the EUR/USD.

Whatever happens, the USD/JPY pair is set for further volatility. The BoJ’s previous interventions have seen moves of over 500 pips, so prudent risk management is especially important.

Central banks are less concerned about the price of gold. Their purchasing priorities are now set by the long-term political goal of independence from the USD.

It’s been a wild week in the markets. After weeks of relatively low volatility, Friday’s NFP release kicked off a rollercoaster ride for traders.

If the US economy continues to show signs of a slowdown, increasing the chances of a September rate cut, we could see a ranging market for the EUR/USD.

The pressure on the ECB to lower interest rates in its June 6th meeting is immense, and the market is fully expecting a cut.

Many analysts believe that despite recent positive trends in the currency, they may be short-lived, and any future movements will be closely tied to political developments following next week’s election. 

After the CPI figures were released, the chances of a September rate cut increased to 72%, with a July rate cut not out of the question either, with a 35% chance.

The good news is the expectations of divergence in rates have brought renewed volatility and volume to the Forex markets.

The fourth Bitcoin halving since its launch in 2009 occurred a few weeks ago, on the 19th of April.

But it does seem like the Bank of Japan has drawn a line in the sand, so JPY bears are cautious

As long as retail, governmental, and institutional investors remain wary of riskier assets, we can expect gold prices to remain elevated.

However, with so many central banks expressing concerns over the dollar's strength, many market players seem to be in profit-taking mode, which has seen the DXY stall at 105.97.

With rhetoric from policymakers in the US now surely more hawkish, there seems to be a generous upside for the USD vs. all major currencies in the coming months. 

OPEC forecasts that 2024 will see overall demand increase by 2.2 million barrels per day, with a 1.8-million-barrel increase in 2025.

In February, Saxo Bank reported a monthly Forex trading volume of $92.4 billion, down from $106.7 billion in January and a huge decline from $134.8 billion in December 2023.

Any moves above the 1.0860 level could see the 1.0900 psychological level come into focus, and beyond that, traders will be eyeing the 1.0950 level.

Optimism abounds and concerns over scandal and fraud are fading, but traders need to be aware that cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and almost completely reliant on trader sentiment for price changes.

A look at three recent scams in a bit more detail to understand how these scams work and what we, as traders, can do to avoid them

Markets predicted that the Bank of England would keep rates on hold today, which they did. This leant temporary support for the GBP/USD but will also put further pressure on the beleaguered economy.

A raft of other US economic data released at the same time were more mixed. Initial and continuing jobless claims both increased, and inflation for final prices of goods and services came in much lower than expected.

Traders are advised to keep a close eye on data coming out of the US, as well as any forward-looking statements made by policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic

Markets are still expecting/hoping for a cut in interest rates in March, though with the CBE Fedwatch tool showing a 65% probability this is still very uncertain.

As the end of the year approaches, it is time to look back over a turbulent and unpredictable 2023 in the financial markets and see if we can learn anything about 2024 in the process.

Forex traders will now turn their attention to Europe, where the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are both expecting to leave interest rates unchanged today.

The danger is that central banks will be forced into a decision they don’t want to make to protect markets.

The economic data seemed to run counter to recent statements from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who had warned on Monday that it was “not the time to start declaring victory” and that “headline inflation may rise again slightly in the coming months”.

Although Thanksgiving may have played a role in subduing the bears on the back of the Eurozone PMI data, chances of a decline look unlikely.

Pepperstone wins Global Broker of the Year for the second year in a row. Tickmill, FBS and FP Markets all recognised.

With a deluge of communications due over the next two days, Forex traders need to understand the effect of policymaker statements on the markets.

Different fundamental factors are weighing on each commodity, and their outlooks are very different.

Less than two months after the European Central Bank (ECB) failed to convince markets that it may raise interest rates again this year, the US Federal Reserve finds itself in the same boat.

The recent Bitcoin hype does not consider the possibility of the SEC rejecting Bitcoin ETFs outright. While this is unlikely, even a partial rejection would crash the market.

Crude oil prices are also being supported as long as the threat of a wider Middle East conflict remains.

Traders should be wary; the main actors in this conflict's long and bloody history are not known for their restraint, and all wars are unpredictable by their nature.

But with a US recession now looking likely and the EUR/USD heading deep into oversold territory, the outlook for 2024 is much less clear

The GBP is trading at a 6-month low against the USD and the EUR following the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% on Tuesday, 26th September.

With the ECB all but announcing an end to its interest rate hikes last week and inflation falling unexpectedly in the UK, it is difficult to see anything but bullish fundamentals for the USD in the near future.

Crude oil prices hit yearly highs on Tuesday, 5th September, as Russia and Saudi Arabia jointly announced an extension of production cuts agreed earlier in the year.

The cryptocurrency industry has rolled from crisis to crisis for almost a year now. With multiple pivotal events approaching that will define the future of the asset class, what could be in store for the market?

Robust US data has made it difficult for the EUR/USD to recover. Having tested the 1.0900 psychological support handle and dropped below it, it looks like it will now test new support around the 1.08500 level.

Gold price appears to have reached a new monthly low of $1,916 and seems prone to further declines. Having consistently stayed beneath both the 20 (yellow) and 50-day (purple) Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), gold is now trending towards the 200-day EMA (pink) set at $1,904.00.

In a surprise aftermarket move on Tuesday, August 1st 2023, Fitch – one of the major debt rating agencies – downgraded US government debt to AA+ from AAA. There is precedent here, with S&P downgrading US debt to AA+ in 2011, a rating that has remained unchanged ever since.

For now, things are quiet. But as with all ranging currency pairs, things look more interesting from a technical standpoint.

The DXY Dollar Index finished the day down -1.08%, its largest fall since January. The Dow jumped over 200 points before correcting later in the day.

With a July interest rate rise now all but locked in for the US, we can expect a continued upside bias for the USD vs other major currencies.

Fibonacci retracement indicate the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially pull back or rally, before continuing with a trend. In this video, we describe what retracements are, the benefits of trading a retracement, and how to use the Fibonacci retracement tool.

At the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, central bank leaders were unequivocal on the need for further monetary tightening. The DXY surged with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD hit particularly hard.

Volatility in the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue as traders look to a second day of testimony from Jay Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank.

Inflation is expected to remain high in the UK, diverging from the Eurozone and USA, where inflation is falling rapidly. UK interest rates will continue to rise as a result, supporting the GBP in the medium term.

The EUR bulls are back in control of the EUR/USD and it is clear that the markets do not believe that the Fed is going to continue hiking interest rates in the medium term, despite the hawkish rhetoric.

The current probability of a rate rise by the Fed is between 20-30%, so if there is a surprise increase, the EUR/USD will be hit hard and the DXY will make major gains.

The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.07 on the news, and the DXY was broadly lower – erasing any session gains.

Weakness in the USD was short-lived due to better-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone and the debt ceiling talks in the US.

With the US default looking less likely, traders are pulling out of the USD and beginning to look further ahead.

The implications of a US default for global financial markets, including the EUR/USD, are generating attention, particularly considering the US dollar's haven status.

In early March, eToro – the world's largest social trading broker – announced that they were going to integrate TradingView – traditionally a sophisticated charting platform – directly into its own trading platform.

As expected, today's FOMC meeting resulted in a 25-basis point hike in interest rates. The market´s response was subdued; this hike had been priced in for some time.

All the major currencies were up against the US dollar following the latest CPI release. But the underlying data may wrongfoot the market in the weeks ahead.

Chris from the podcast Let's Talk Forex with Alison and Chris shares his latest analysis of the effects of the weak US jobs data ahead of Friday's NFP report.

Fears for the US economy continue to grow with job openings falling and a less-than-expected increase in private employment. But the USD has remained resilient.

Chris from the podcast Let's Talk Forex with Alison and Chris shares his latest analysis of the effects of German inflation figures on the EUR/USD

Following the market chaos over the last two weeks, a relative calm has beset the markets. But the outlook for the USD remains uncertain as markets focus on monetary policy divergence in Europe and the US.

Chris from the podcast Let's Talk Forex with Alison and Chris shares his latest analysis of the effects of the Fed's March interest rate hike.

Last week’s spectacular collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), closely followed by Signature Bank, has spooked the markets, raised the spectre of a bank run in the US and opened a Pandora’s Box of pressing questions and concerns.

Following a 6-month absence, the MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5 trading apps are back on the app store for iOS devices.

Recent data releases in the US have surprised investors, with US economic growth remaining stubbornly resilient in the face of repeated interest rate increases by the Fed. But what does this mean for the markets in the mid-term?

Multiple news outlets are reporting today that OvalX (formerly ETX Capital) has sold its customer base to Capital.com, a major UK-based brokerage, and will be closing down.

The report highlights a record number of complaints, continued broker membership growth, and a decline in average compensation.

Predicting the DXY: Winter 22/23 Edition

On Friday 23rd September 2022, Apple quietly removed MT4 and MT5, two of the world’s most popular trading platforms, from its App Store. While the abrupt takedown has gone mostly unnoticed, it has created a furore in the Forex trading community and has reignited long-held concerns over fundamental security flaws.

Like CFD trading, the history of cryptocurrency is also a turbulent one, albeit a shorter and noisier one. Without going into a potted history of cryptocurrency, it is safe to say that its most famous aspect is price volatility. Which is where CFDs and cryptocurrency enter an unholy union.